BIOFORECASTER expert warns against Google

Posted by Susan Aldridge Ph.D. October 14, 2009 | 1 comment(s)

BIOFORECASTER, which has a panel of leading investors review the biotech scene, is arguably the most popular session at BioPartnering Europe. Delegates know they must earn their farewell drinks by listening to the experts’ predictions for the year ahead.

‘You cannot catch flies with vinegar,’ observed Antoine Papiernik (Managing Partner, Sofinnova).  Translated, that probably means that you must put the right amount of money ( ie a large amount) into a biotech investment to realise its fruits.  Sofinnova apparently likes to do this by stealth – a trend that was picked up on by private investor Andy Richards ‘With stealth investment there’s no website, no PR – but there’s a lot more money going in than people realise’ he observed.

Stealth investment notwithstanding, a great deal can still be achieved by investing relatively small amounts – Richards cited Abcam, Cambridge Labs and DXS as examples. ‘These are very diverse business models – and I think we ought to celebrate diversity more than we do,’ he said, This capital efficiency could become a watchword in tough economic times and, indeed, John Hodgson (Director, Critical i Ltd) wondered why we had put up with ‘capital stupidity’ for so long.

Looking forward, Hodgson was betting on US regulations on biosimilars by the end of the year (having noticed ‘runes pointing in the right direction’). He also predicted ‘more efficient’ IP gathering. Papiernik thought there’d be a ‘few’ IPOs soon and also warned that it was time people got up to date on China (after all Sinopharm has raised a billion dollars). He believes that Chinese pharmas will start buying up companies in the US and Europe – a strong signal of the nation’s gathering power.  The comment was particularly apt – for BIOFORECASTER marked the start of BioPartnering China in the same venue on the following day.

Richards predicted that more early stage high science companies – particularly in the UK, because of currency issues – would attract the venture community.  He noted that the antibody bubble has not burst, as predicted, but is going from strength to strength and there is likely to be interest in variants involving new chemistry scaffolds. ‘And if you look at what is really hot, then it’s experimental and translational medicine – but we have not worked out the business models to get the value our of these areas,’ he said. He noted that Apple and Amazon were taking an interest in the whole health care sector, with platforms such as electronic patient records. And Google is investing in antibody companies.  These giants are trying to take the value of health care away from biotech and pharma and, Richards warned, we are already starting to see this play out.

Meanwhile, Rupert Winckler, who was standing in for BIOFORECASTER regular Sam Fazeli, said ‘Next year will be different’ – the traditional closing note for BPE. Just time for Henderson to slip in a compliment to the organisers. ‘Biopartnering Europe is the meeting where business gets done,’ he observed. ‘That’s the differentiator.’

Susan Aldridge Ph.D.
European News Reporter
Genetic Engineering & Biotechnology News
.(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)

1 Comment(s)

Robert Lee Kilpatrick said:

Posted on October 15, 2009 at 7:31 am

Susan - you are my first guest blogger. Thank you. You have written an informative piece, which I have greatly enjoyed reading. The Google angle is very interesting.